Saturday was one of the greatest days in College Football’s long, rich history. It was certainly the craziest CFB Saturday I’ve ever witnessed. I thought last week’s Auburn vs. Georgia game had an ending for the ages, when Auburn miraculously converted a last second Hail Mary on a tipped pass that somehow fell into the Auburn receiver’s hands as if God had placed the ball there himself – it was an absolutely unbelievable play and without a doubt the best moment of this college football season… until Auburn vs. Alabama happened. Alabama’s 57 yard field goal attempt as time expired backfired when Auburn’s Chris Davis returned the miss for a 109 yard touchdown, shocking fans around the country and sending the BCS system into total bedlam.
One of the major selling points of college football (as opposed to the NFL) is that every game matters. Since there are no playoffs, every play in the regular season has the potential to impact National Championship aspirations. The final play of the Iron Bowl did exactly that, sparking a fierce debate in regards to which teams deserve to play in the BCS National Championship game in Pasadena on January 6th.
Here’s my crack analysis of the teams that still have a shot to make it to the big game:
#1 Florida State: The Seminoles are undefeated, having barely been tested all year. The lone tough opponent that the ‘Noles faced was Clemson, who Florida St. disposed of quite easily. At the time, Clemson was a top 5 team in the nation, and FSU’s dismantling of the tigers was quite impressive. Since then, Clemson has faded and shown that perhaps we gave them a bit too much credit early in the season. Therefore, the Seminoles really haven’t had an extremely impressive win all season. Look for that trend to continue next week in the ACC championship game, when the ‘Noles take on Duke. Yes, Duke. All that being said, FSU has dominated every game they’ve played, so it’s difficult to remove them from National Championship contention.
#2 Ohio State: Like FSU, Ohio St. hasn’t played enough quality opponents to truly prove that they are one of the top 1 or 2 teams in the country. The Big 10 is weaker than I’ve ever seen it, and OSU’s most impressive wins are against the likes of Northwestern and Wisconsin, so I’m not totally sold. If Ohio State beats #10 Michigan State in the Big 10 Championship next week then I’ll be forced to take them more seriously, but right now I’m struggling to make myself believe that the best team in the nation would have to escape from the Big House last week with a 1 point win against 5-loss Michigan. Ohio State’s best claim to play for the title is that not only are they undefeated this year, they went undefeated last year. That consistency is definitely impressive, even if it has come at the expense of sub-par competition.
#3 Auburn: A few weeks ago, Auburn was not in this conversation. They’ve played well in the SEC all season long, yet before last week they did not really have a signature win big enough to push them into championship contention. Beating Georgia on the last second Hail Mary was huge, obviously, but the truth is that Georgia isn’t as good this year as they have been in years past. However, by defeating previously ranked #1 Alabama this week in the Iron Bowl, the Tigers have shown that they can match-up with any team in the country. IF (it’s a big if) they can find a way to beat #5 Missouri in the SEC Championship game then it might possibly be enough to push Auburn over the top and have them replace FSU or OSU in the BCS title game. Auburn’s best argument is that the SEC has won 7 straight national championships, mostly by decisive margins, so it should follow that the SEC champion (even with 1 loss) should get a shot to win it all.
#4 Alabama: Still the best team in the country. Alabama football is the closest thing we have to a professional sports team competing in college athletics – they are just heads and shoulders above everyone else in my opinion. On a neutral field I would take Alabama -7 against any team in the country, especially if given 4 weeks to prepare for that opponent. Yet they did lose, albeit on a miraculous play, to their bitter rivals Auburn… and therefore they won’t get to play for the title unless FSU and Ohio State both slip up in their conference championship games.
#5 Missouri: Missouri’s only shot at a BCS Championship is if they beat Auburn in the aforementioned SEC Championship game next week in Atlanta. If they can pull off that win, and if FSU or Ohio State loses, then Missouri could leapfrog Auburn, Alabama, and one of those other teams into the National Championship Game. It’s certainly a long shot, but we’ve been seeing some pretty crazy shit in college football lately so I won’t be ruling it out.
What do I think will happen? I think both FSU and Ohio State win comfortably next week and play each other in Pasadena for the National Championship. I believe the Auburn vs. Missouri game is a complete toss-up, and only if Auburn undeniably crushes Missouri will they even have a chance to replace FSU or Ohio State in the title game. I guess we’ll just have to wait and see…